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Investors are watching the polls, have a clear election favorite

Investors are watching the polls, have a clear election favorite

This election definitely has me down.  Like so many others, I can’t bear to see one more negative ad or listen to one more commentator telling me that I am voting for the wrong person.  I’m a woman and I would NEVER vote for someone who has shown the disrespect for women that Donald Trump has exhibited.  I am with Opra, if you don’t like Hillary, hold your nose and vote for her anyway … you are not inviting her to your house for dinner, you are electing a president of the United States.

I’m tired of listening to Second Amendment people who don’t listen to what Hillary is saying.  No one wants to do away with Second Amend rights, but how could anybody be happy with criminals being able to buy guns?  If someone is on the No-Fly List, why would you want them to have a gun?  I just sold a vacation home in New York State … lots of my neighbors had guns because they were hunters.  No problem with that.  If you live in a neighborhood where you feel you need protection, so long as you are a normal person without a criminal record, I have no problem with you owning a gun … and Hillary doesn’t either.  Of course, in those circumstances there is the possibility that the gun could end up being used against you, but if you want to take that risk, that’s up to you.

You think Hillary is dishonest?  Well, Donald Trump is on trial next month for cheating low and middle income people out of millions of dollars through Trump University.  He’s been working on schemes like that ever since his father gave him a million dollars to get started in life.  Hillary worked her way up from humble beginnings, and she knows what it’s like to climb the ladder to success.  No one gave her a million dollars to get started.

Donald Trump thinks he knows more about the military than our generals … who else but a narcissist like Trump would even say anything that ridiculous? 

Our country is not a realty television show.  Trump is looking for adoration and applause.  He thinks he can bully his way through negotiations like he does with labor unions … Hillary Clinton wants to be held in high esteem by her piers across the world by negotiating with them and earning their respect.

I could go on and on about Trump’s record on racial equality, his ban on Muslims, his bankruptcies and the small businesses that were badly hurt in the process, his willingness to have small countries have access to a nuclear bomb, etc. … but if I did, this article would be too long and no one would read it.  I will just end by saying that I don’t know how anyone can be voting for Donald Trump.  He loves to use the word “disaster,” but as President, he would be the biggest disaster of all.

 

The following article by Steve Benen is from the Rachel Maddow blog:

Investors are watching the polls, have a clear election favorite

11/02/16 12:58 PM

Late last week, when FBI Director James Comey took a step towards intervening in the presidential election, it didn’t just cause a freak-out among campaign observers: it also jolted Wall Street. Almost immediately after the Comey news went public, U.S. markets fell quickly and sharply, only to gradually recover once it became clearer the FBI director’s letter was more anodyne than it initially appeared.

The sudden drop, however, served as an interesting reminder: Donald Trump may be a New York billionaire, but investors around the world desperately hope he loses.

The Wall Street Journal  reported overnight that Wall Street fell yesterday at least in part because of fears that the Republican presidential candidate might win.
Tightening polls in the U.S. presidential race also continued to steer market sentiment. A Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed Republican candidate Donald Trump leading in the U.S. presidential race on Tuesday, sparking uncertainty after investors had broadly priced in a victory for Hillary Clinton. […]

“[E]lections are the main focus,” said Philip Marey, U.S. strategist at Rabobank. “Until last Friday, markets had become a bit complacent and most people thought it would be very difficult for Trump to win,” he said.

Now, global investors are worried about the uncertainty of a Trump presidency in terms of policy and the possible implications for trade, he said.
Marketwatch published a related report this morning, noting that “signs the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8 will be much closer than anticipated” have rattled investors. When Wall Street was “mildly confident” Clinton would win, markets went up, but as Trump’s odds improve, it plays a role in pushing markets lower.

It’s worth appreciating why.

The Philadelphia Daily News had a good piece on this several weeks ago, explaining that when it comes to the economy, trade, and international affairs, Trump creates the one thing investors avoid: uncertainty.
Why does the stock market rise and fall with Hillary Clinton’s polls? Why don’t investors identify better with Donald Trump? asks James M. Meyer, chief investment officer at $1 billion-asset Tower Bridge Advisors in West Conshohocken, in a note today to clients of Boenning & Scattergood.

“Mrs. Clinton has historic ties to Wall Street, but her policies clearly are not very pro-business,” Meyer writes. “She wants to raise taxes, especially on the investor class… She has come down hard” on high corporate drug prices. “In short, she is a die-hard tax-and-spend liberal…. Much of what she proposes would stifle growth… the same way as has been the case during the Obama administration…

“But with that said, Mrs. Clinton is experienced, stable and a known quantity.”
Obviously, this is not an argument from an enthusiastic Clinton admirer, but it’s a perspective that I suspect many on Wall Street agree with: when it comes to the global economy, Clinton will be responsible and measured. It’s hard to even imagine her taking reckless risks and dangerous gambles that could do serious and lasting harm to financial markets around the world.

And then there’s Donald Trump, who’s on record saying he doesn’t consider U.S. trade wars with China and Mexico to be a big deal. (Trump’s exact words in May were, “Who the hell cares if there’s a trade war?”)

Over the last few generations, investors do better when there’s a Democrat in the White House, but when it comes to Trump, that dynamic is even more potent. The Republican intends to tear down the nation’s current health care system, and no one knows what he’d replace it with. He wants to tear up trade deals and international alliances, and it’s hard to predict how (or whether) he’d pick up the pieces. Trump intends to push trillions of dollars in tax cuts, which he can’t begin to pay for, and the projected effects of which are not encouraging.

All of this would have a sweeping impact on the economy and financial markets. Can you really blame investors for preferring a more Obama-like status quo?
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